Forex CAD 11 July 2011
USD/CAD to consolidate with risks skewed higher. Underpinned by reduced investor risk tolerance, softer commodity & oil prices (Nymex crude settled down $2.47 Friday at $96.20/bbl). But CAD sentiment soothed by stronger-than-expected 28,400 Canadian net job gains in June (vs +15,000 forecast). Data focus: 1215 GMT Canada June housing starts, 1430 GMT Bank of Canada business outlook survey. USD/CAD daily chart mixed as MACD & stochastics bearish, but latter at oversold; 5-day moving average turning up. Resistance at 0.9665 (Friday''''s high, marching Thursday''''s high); breach would target 0.9694 (Wednesday''''s reaction high, matching confluence of 55-day and 100-day moving averages), then 0.9825 (June 29 high), 0.9885 (June 28 high) and 0.9913 (June 27 high). Support at 0.9598 (hourly chart), then at 0.9569-0.9565 band (Friday''''s low-Thursday''''s low); breach would expose downside to 0.9509 (May 11 reaction low), then 0.9436 (April 29 bottom) and psychological round-numbered level of 0.9400.