Canadian dollar September 19, 2010
USD/CAD to trade with risks skewed higher. CAD softer on crosses as markets await BOC interest rate decision due 1300 GMT - bank widely expected to hold its key overnight target rate steady at 1.0% after 3 consecutive 25-bp rate hikes. USD/CAD also supported by USD-positive comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Geithner; but topside limited by healthier investor risk appetite, expectations of more QE measures from U.S. Federal Reserve, firmer commodity & oil prices (Nymex crude settled up $1.83 yesterday at $83.08/bbl). USD/CAD daily chart positive-biased as stochastics rising from oversold, MACD staging bullish crossover against its exponential moving average, bullish parabolic stop-and-reverse signal hit at 1.0171 yesterday. Resistance at 1.0228 (yesterday''''s high, matching Oct. 8 high); breach would expose upside to 1.0272 (Oct. 5 high), then 1.0313 (Oct. 1 high, near 55-day moving average), 1.0346 (Sept. 30 high, matching 200-day moving average) and 1.0361 (Sept. 28 high, near 100-day moving average). Support at 1.0131 (hourly chart); breach would expose downside to 1.0075 (previous cap set Thursday), then 1.0008 (Friday''''s low), 0.9980 (Thursday''''s 5-month low), 0.9926 (April 21 low) and 0.9816 (May 21, 2008 reaction low).