dollar Canadian dollar September 15, 2010
dollar Canadian to consolidate after setting 5-month low 0.9980 yesterday. Pair undermined negative USD sentiment, narrower-than-expected Canada August trade deficit of C$1.35 bln (vs C$2.3 bln forecast). But USD/CAD downside limited by weaker investor risk appetite, softer oil prices (Nymex crude settled down 32 cents yesterday at $82.69/bbl); expectations BOC could pause its monetary tightening campaign at policy announcement due Tuesday; positions adjustment before weekend. Data focus: 1230 GMT Canada August manufacturing survey, August new motor vehicle sales. dollar Canadian daily chart still negative-biased as MACD bearish, while stochastics stay suppressed at oversold, 5- & 15-day moving averages falling; but spinning-top candlestick pattern completed yesterday. Support at 0.9980 (yesterday''''s low); breach would expose downside to 0.9926 (April 21 low), then 0.9816 (May 21, 2008 reaction low) and 0.9708 (Feb. 28, 2008 reaction low). Resistance at 1.0075 (yesterday''''s high); breach would expose upside to 1.0183 (Tuesday''''s high), then 1.0227 (Oct. 8 high), 1.0272 (Oct. 5 high) and 1.0313 (Oct. 1 high, near 55-day moving average).